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How Tariffs Could Impact Black Friday and the Rest of the Holiday Season
The holiday season is around the corner, and for many shoppers, the excitement of Black Friday and the search for the best deals are part of the annual tradition. However, recent increases in tariffs could significantly alter the landscape of holiday shopping this year.
The Current State of Tariffs: What You Need to Know
As of October 2025, average tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. have skyrocketed to over 18%, a drastic increase from just 2.5% early this year. This rise is primarily affecting products from China and certain other nations, particularly hitting categories like electronics, metals, and apparel. Financial expert Eric Croak underscores that while these new tariffs might not dominate headlines, their effects are deeply embedded in the pricing of many imported items we often take for granted, such as electronics and home goods.
Will Black Friday Still Be the Same?
The consensus among trade and retail experts is that while many prices might be higher this year, the dramatic shifts may not be immediately evident. Most major retailers have their holiday stock chains established well before the tariff increases took effect, which means shoppers might not feel the full brunt of price hikes until next year's holiday shopping season. This temporary stability could lead to familiar Black Friday deals, but with higher overall prices mixed in.
What Deals Could Be Affected This Year?
According to experts, the items that are likely to see increased prices due to tariffs include electronics, furniture, and home goods. For instance, products that rely on imported components—like gaming consoles or kitchen appliances—could see price hikes ranging between 5% to 12%. Speciality food items and holiday decorations, many sourced from China, may also experience upward price pressure, making this holiday season more expensive than in previous years.
The Bigger Picture: Economic Impacts
The impact of tariffs is projected to extend beyond just higher prices. A recent report by LendingTree estimates that tariffs could add approximately $40 billion to holiday shopping costs. This translates to a financial burden of about $132 per average shopper. Families might be forced to reconsider their gift-giving strategies, potentially opting for fewer items or more budget-conscious choices. In fact, 80% of consumers are worried about future price increases due to tariffs, according to insights from the 2025 State of Consumer Holiday Shopping Report, which tracks changing shopping behaviors in light of economic pressures.
How Shoppers Are Responding to the New Normal
The current scenario is pushing consumers to adopt a more strategic approach to their holiday shopping. Many families are delaying their purchases, with only 25% starting their shopping before October—a drop from 35% the previous year. Coupled with the growing preference for online shopping, where over half of holiday budgets are allocated, shoppers are taking a more cautious approach, watching for deals and evaluating their spending carefully.
Looking Ahead: Predictions for the Future
Experts predict that while Black Friday 2025 may offer familiar deals, the increases in tariffs will have a long-lasting effect. As retailers start placing orders for 2026, the higher costs of goods are likely to become reflected on store shelves, and consumers should prepare for an extended period of inflation in the upcoming years.
What Can Shoppers Do to Prepare?
In light of these expected changes, consumers should take proactive steps to make the most of their holiday shopping experience. Planning purchases well in advance, seeking out sales that may still offer value, and flocking towards alternatives like DIY home decor and organization can all make a difference this season. Investing time into DIY projects can be a great way to personalize gifts and home accents while also staying within budget.
Conclusion: Embrace the Challenge with Resilience
The economic landscape for the 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be a challenging one, but with mindful planning and a thoughtful approach, it’s possible to navigate it with grace. As prices inch upward, focusing on practical, budget-friendly strategies and creative DIY options will help ensure that the spirit of the holidays remains intact. Stay informed, shop smart, and don’t let tariffs dampen your holiday cheer!
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